why i can't win at the stock market

a few weeks ago, planet money decided to run an experiment.  they asked readers to pick a number between 0 and 100, with the goal being to pick the number closest to half the average of all the guesses. so here's how to you play the game.  if you assume everyone is guessing randomly, the average would be 50, so you'd pick 25.  however, knowing that everyone else knows what you know, and are all guessing 25, you should pick 12.5, however knowing that everyone else knows what you know, and are all guessing 12.5, you should pick 6.25, and on and on and on until you wind up with some number which for all intents and purposes is zero.  makes sense right?  how could a reasonable, rational person pick anything else?  well planet money released the results along with a graph of the distribution of guesses, to which i have added my own interpretation.  for the record, the actual winning number turned out to be 11.53.  i picked zero.

this whole experiment and ensuing debates with coworkers reminds me of this...

earthwuakle

more fun with scammers

Date: Tue, 9 Aug 2011 02:37:12 +0100
Subject: washburn lyon electric guitar w/ practice amp - $75 (alexandria, va)
From: glevipaniz@gmail.com
To: sale-hjxug-2535751575@craigslist.org

** CRAIGSLIST ADVISORY --- AVOID SCAMS BY DEALING LOCALLY
** Avoid: wiring money, cross-border deals, work-at-home
** Beware: cashier checks, money orders, escrow, shipping
** More Info: http://www.craigslist.org/about/scams.html

You still have it up for sale? 

---

This message was remailed to you via: sale-hjxug-2535751575@craigslist.org
If this email is a scam or spam please flag it now:
http://www.craigslist.org/flag/?flagCode=31&smtpid=20110809013713PoVZGyjC4BG3L-vKngSXLA

---

 Dan Robinson

To glevipaniz@gmail.com

Yes.

 kevin grierson

 Add to contacts

To Dan Robinson

Hi,
Thanks for your response. I'm going on a vacation to London but I will instruct my assistant to prepare and mail your payment which I'm sure you will get in about 4 - 6 business days. I'll add $20 extra for the delay. I'll pay by M O or cashier check so send me your info (i.e full name, mailing address and your phone number) 
I will also make arrangement for pick-up which will be after you must have received and cashed the payment.
Awaiting your info.
Thanks

 Dan Robinson

• 

  

To facebookpromotions001@gmail.com

You know what would really be more convenient for me is if you gave me your name, address, phone number and your bank routing number and checking account number and I will just direct-debit your account.  I'd be happy to ship the items to you.  That way we could complete this transaction much quicker.

why i love ledo's pizza: a photo essay

making connections

warning: most of the people reading this blog absolutely will not care about this post.

i've been searching for a good way to distribute power/signal/ground in various electronics projects and pretty much all of the options i've found just weren't quite right.

Wire Tap

first there is your standard wire-taps, wire nuts (i hate wire nuts), or just solder and electrical tape (i hate electrical tape).  these are okay if you only need to one split your wire once.

Terminal Strip

there is your standard terminal strip, but these only allow you to connect wires 1-to-1 at a time unless you jumper two positions next to each other.  or unless i connect the signal wire to each position individually.  they also have no insulation.

Bus Bar

then you've got your busbars.  not a bad choice, but again, no insulation.

Ganged Fuse Block

then there are these fuse holders which look like they would be pretty convenient, only i don't need fused circuits.  and the other problems is, in this application, i need to distribute one 12v-constant power, one 12v-switched power and a common return so i'd need two of these and i'd need to tie the grounds together.

Blue Sea System Dual Bus Bar p/n 2722

this dual bus bar from blue sea systems looked promising but they were a bit on the pricey side and i'd need two of them, and it's really just more of a plastic cover than the metal parts could still short.  you'd think a company making marine electronics parts would seal their stuff up better.

VTE Tabbed Bus Bar

but after many hours of searching the internet, i finally found almost exactly what i was looking for.  it's these tab-style bus bars from vte world.  they use quick disconnects for the various circuits, are insulated, come in different colors and are relatively cheap.  i ordered two 10-position ones in black plastic (one for 12v-constant and one for 12v-switched), and one 20-position for ground, with red, yellow and black insulation respectively.  you can order them in small quantities from vtewarehouse.com

Posi-Lock Tap Connector

and my coworker just showed me these, which also look pretty promising and will allow you to make up to four new connections with one existing wire. http://www.posi-lock.com/posiplug.html

brown thumb

well it seems to be another year of unsuccessful gardening.  i think if add up all the costs for this year and last year and all the delicious fresh fruits and vegetables i've managed to grow, i've spent roughly $315 on about three tomatoes, one green pepper, that apparently the fucking squirrel that  stole it didn't think was very good, and a lemon the size of a golf ball.


here's the squash plants i tried to grow



and here's the one just randomly growing in my compost bin. that son of a bitch is like 15 feet long and some of those leaves are about two feet across.


on the plus side, the persimmon tree that i got last fall that was basically some roots with a twig attached to the top is doing alright, and the fruit salad tree and 4-in-1 apple tree are also doing pretty well. and the citrus plants seem to be enjoying the heat. the kiwi vines didn't make it.

chicken or beef?

got ready to make some tasty kabobs for dinner tonight.  marinated my steak since yesterday.  skewered some vegetables... red onion, green peppers, mushrooms and squash.

stepped outside to light the grill and get it nice and hot before i put my steak on there.

noticed an awful lot of smoke and opened the grill to find this.

fortunately, i shut the grill off before i set the little guys nest on fire.  they were lucky they weren't baby geese cause i woulda flame broiled those bastards.  i think everyone is okay, but i think i'm gonna have to postpone that bbq i was planning on having.

i ended up cooking my kabobs under the broiler in the oven.  came out pretty good.